Tuesday, 29 January 2019

Volume and Open Interest suggesting an accumulation in USDINR

USDINR futures prices were seen consolidating while  volumes  and OI were seen increasing suggesting accumulation.

Appreciating AUD heading towards 1.3774 against US Dollar

USDAUD has turned lower sharply after correcting 61.8% Fib. Retracement level to the rally started from 11th of  Jan’19 suggesting that overall weakness is still intact.
oThe upper band of the Bollinger band is seen moving lower in line with the lower band suggesting negative momentum is in place.
oAt momentum front both RSI (14Pd ) and Stochastic (14/3/3) are seen turning lower after testing equilibrium region supporting the negative bias.
oGoing ahead USDAUD is likely to hold below 1.1413 and trade lower towards 1.3774.

Wednesday, 23 January 2019

Is Advance/Decline Ratio suggesting sharp fall ahead in NIFTY??

 As seen in the chart Nifty-50 is seen moving higher since the last week but advance decline ratio is seen moving the other way suggesting a correction in nifty in coming days.

CME Gold Futures Vs Dollar Index.

CME GOLD Futures Vs US Dollar index as seen in the chart are usually inversely related to each other. But both were seen moving in tandem  with each other suggesting safe heaven buying on the wake of global slowdown concerns.

Monday, 21 January 2019

WTI Crude oil likely to find resistance at $ 55.00

WTI Crude oil prices are seen trading 
higher since 26th Dec’18 after finding support at USD 42.36.
Prices are currently at the upper band of the Bollinger and previous falls consolidation range.
Also momentum indicator Stochastic (14/3/3) is seen in overbought region suggesting a correction in coming days.
Going ahead prices at resistance and momentum in overbought region prices are likely to find resistance at 54.50-55.00 and turn lower again towards 50.

USDINR has resistance at 71.50 prices

USDINR spot prices is at middle band of the Bollinger after trading higher in the last two weeks. USDINR has resistance at 71.50 prices are likely to hold below it and trade lower towards 70.70 in the coming 1-2 sessions.

Price, Open interest & Volume analysis on USDINR

USDINR Jan futures prices, volume and OI were slightly down in the last three days after  four days of rally suggesting that profit booking is in place.

Asian equities are trading cautiously but on a positive front as investors tried to digest China

• Asian equities are trading cautiously but on a positive front as investors tried to digest China quarterly GDP numbers, although the GDP growth was in line with the Reuters poll of 6.4%(YoY), but the levels were similar to the growth seen during global financial crisis in early 2009 despite constant easing by fiscal and monetary authorities.

• US Treasury yields stretched its gains as the investors risk appetite returned with the hopes for a thaw in US-China trade tensions. But a prolonged US Government partial shutdown is keeping a lid on gains in Dollar Index.

• Britain Prime Minister Theresa May will present the Brexit plan-B today at 8.00PM IST after her Plan-A beaten down by a historic margin.

• PBOC fixed the Yuan reference rate at 6.7774 per dollar Vs 6.7665.

• Indian Rupee opened at 71.36 a dollar and is expected to trade between 71.10 – 71.50 range for the day.

• US markets will remain closed today on account of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

Tuesday, 4 December 2018

Good Morning!

After the US-China 90 day truce, the US equity indices yesterday rallied but again this ceasefire gives a way to doubts on whether the two countries are able to resolve their differences before the 90-day deadline; resulting into a fall in Asian shares early today.
The data release highlighting weakness in the Eurozone economy was the 3Q GDP reading for Italy that came in below expectations. This contraction marks the first quarterly contraction in 14 quarters.
Oil prices rose on Tuesday, extending strong gains from the previous day amid expected OPEC-led supply cuts and a mandated reduction in Canadian output.
The Dollar index is steady but is somehow not able to sustain and move above the 97 handle.
The Indian Unit is seen opening around 70.50 and is likely to hold itself above the 70 mark today.

Karvy Forex

Friday, 30 November 2018

Good Morning!

Global Markets trading cautiously as Trump is set to meet Chinese President Xi on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Argentina, but he denied to meet Putin due to tensions over Russia forces opening fire on Ukrainian navy boats and seizing them. Dollar index trading steadily as FOMC meeting minutes suggest that although, Fed is likely to increase interest rates by 25 bps in December meeting, but further rate hike decisions will be data dependent. Oil prices are back again above $50.00 currently trading at $51.61 as OPEC and Russian to agree on production cuts next week, but swelling US inventories would keep the pressure on prices. Wall Street trading marginally lower weighed down by Tech and Bank stocks, Asian equities trading mixed ahead of the summit. Indian Rupee is likely to open near 69.65 a dollar and is expected to trade between 69.45 to 70.00 range for the day.
Karvy Forex

Monday, 26 November 2018

Good Morning!

Trade-related headlines are likely to drive investor sentiment this week, as investors look ahead to a meeting between U.S. President Trump and China President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Argentina.
In Europe, Brexit headlines will be in focus after European Union leaders endorsed Theresa May's Brexit plans yesterday, setting up a showdown with lawmakers in her own country.
Global financial markets will also pay close attention to comments from a handful of Fed officials, including Chair Powell, for additional insight into the outlook for monetary policy in the months ahead.
On the data front, there is important third-quarter U.S. growth data this week, which should lend further support to the notion that the economy is on solid footing.
Asian shares edged higher today, though investors were cautious as plunging oil prices fanned worries about a dimming outlook for the global economy.
Oil prices steadied today after plunging nearly 8 percent in the previous session, but remain under pressure with Brent crude below $60 per barrel amid weak fundamentals and struggling financial markets.
The dollar index rose today, as investors sought shelter in safe haven currencies as fears of a global growth slowdown and U.S.-Sino trade tensions sapped risk appetite.
The Indian Unit, however, is seen opening strong against the Dollar at 70.40 today and is expected to play the 70.00-70.80 range for the day.

Karvy Forex

Volume and Open Interest suggesting an accumulation in USDINR

USDINR futures prices were seen consolidating while  volumes  and OI were seen increasing suggesting accumulation.