Friday, 28 September 2018

Good Morning!

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman says the U.S. does not face a large chance of near-term recession. The news of robust economic growth boosted gains on Wall Street. The wave passed on to the Asian equities today pushing the shares higher.
Oil prices inched up on Friday, with investors trying to gauge the potential impact on supply from looming U.S. sanctions on Iran's crude exports.
The Euro witnessed an around 0.9% fall yesterday largely due to increased Italian political jitters as the anti-establishment parties agreed on a budget proposal that is at odds with Eurozone fiscal rules. The situations seems to worsen for Euro as The Fed has just raised rates to a range of 2.00 – 2.25 percent while the ECB is only just preparing to exit its asset purchase program potentially by the end of this year.
The Dollar Index as a result of this and with strong economic data in U.S. managed to test the 95 mark yesterday.
The Indian Unit, yet again found support at 73 a dollar offshore and recovered a little where it is seen opening today near 72.60. However, it continues to be under pressure even after the governments measures to curb imports. All thanks to the dollar strength globally. Expect the Rupee to play the 72.40-72.90 range with a negative bias.

Karvy Forex

Thursday, 27 September 2018

Good Morning!

Fed raises interest rates by 25bp to range of 2-2.25%. 2018 GDP forecast raised. Drops “accommodative” from FOMC statement.
US equities lost the momentum late yesterday, while the US dollar rose, after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, as expected, and signalled the end of its "accommodative" monetary policy.
Global equities cooled off and US bond yields fell after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected, sticking to its script of gradual policy tightening with forecasts of five more rate hikes by 2020.
Oil prices rose by 1 percent today as investors focused on the prospect of tighter markets due to U.S. sanctions against major crude exporter Iran, which are set to be implemented in November.
The dollar edged higher yesterday in choppy trading after the Fed’s rate decision. The upsurge was mainly a result of indications of more rate hikes going forward and signals of the end of the "accommodative" policy era.
The Indian Unit however is seen opening stronger at 72.40 a dollar, as the Govt. announces measures (Increase in import duty) to curb Current Account Deficit; and is expected to swing between 72.20-72.70 for the day.

Tuesday, 25 September 2018

• US indices cooled off yesterday after a new round of US-China trade tariffs kicked in that reduced last week's hopes for talks between the two countries. Expectations on further rate hike from the Fed also killed further prospects for US equities.
• Asian stocks struggled today as the latest round of US-China tariffs revived fears the trade dispute would knock global growth.

• Crude oil prices extended further near four-year highs after Saudi Arabia and Russia ruled out immediate production increases. U.S. sanctions against Iran also loom.

• The Dollar was largely steady against its major peers this morning as investors looked to policy clues from the U.S. Federal Reserve, but against the Indian Unit it is seen appreciating further where it is set to open near 73 today and is expected to maintain strength throughout the day to further move up to 73.30.

Thursday, 6 September 2018

Good Morning!

Anxiety about a major escalation in the US-China trade conflict and the turmoil in emerging markets have led to a fragile investor confidence in global equities as well as in Asia where the stocks are down for the sixth straight day today. Nasdaq dipped for more than a percent as Facebook & Twitter executives defended their companies before skeptical U.S. lawmakers.
Oil Prices inch lower after API reports a minor draw of 1.17 million barrels of inventory for the week ending September 1.
The dollar index moved lower after a sharp bounce in Pound as news of UK and Germany were prepared to drop key Brexit demands. Albeit, news driven volatility pulled the dollar lower, the dollar index is likely to stay tall.
The Indian Unit hit 72 a dollar but quickly retreated after a suspected RBI intervention and mild profit booking at psychological level. Rupee is expected to play the 71.40-71.80 range for the day.

Karvy Forex

Monday, 3 September 2018

Good Morning!

President Donald Trump issued a new threat to terminate NAFTA agreement altogether, he also warned Congress not to intervene in tough negotiations that may or may not include Canada in a new accord. In another news Prime Minister Theresa May said she would not allow compromises to her Brexit strategy that went against the national interest, seeking to allay fears among some in her Conservative Party that she will cave into Brussels’ demands in negotiations. The EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has said he is strongly opposed to key parts of Theresa May’s proposals for a future trade deal. European markets were pulled down by more than a percent followed by comments of policymakers over Brexit negotiations. Crude prices trading marginally lower amid rising supply from OPEC and US, but holding to its previous gains supported by the expectations of falling Iranian output once US sanctions bite output from November. Asian Equities were seen trading lower and SGX Nifty is indicating a positive start in the local bourses. Indian Rupee is likely to open near 70.80 a dollar and is likely to trade between 70.50 to 71.00 range for the day.

Karvy Forex.

Volume and Open Interest suggesting an accumulation in USDINR

USDINR futures prices were seen consolidating while  volumes  and OI were seen increasing suggesting accumulation.