Friday, 29 June 2018

• Indian Rupee hit hard by Oil prices that are currently at a three-and-half year high.
• BoJ reduced purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) with 5-10 years to maturity. USDJPY moves to 110.75.
• US stocks rose yesterday as financial shares snapped a 13-day losing streak while technology and other growth sectors rebounded from the prior day's declines.
• Asian equities remained near nine-month lows early today despite small gains on Wall Street overnight, as ongoing concerns over global trade frictions dampened sentiment.
• Dollar index drops abruptly today morning as the EU28 leaders finally agree on the EU commission’s deal on migration/asylum. Euro & Pound pushed higher.
• The Indian Rupee opened at 68.69 a dollar after a sudden dip in the DXY. USDINR to trade volatile between 68.50 & 69.00

Tuesday, 26 June 2018

• Global stocks extended a sell-off today followed by a drop in U.S. equities as an escalating trade dispute between the United States and other major economies drove investors away from riskier assets, lifting U.S. Treasuries and keeping dollar on the defensive.

• Oil prices rose on Tuesday on uncertainty over Libyan oil exports, although plans by producer cartel OPEC to raise output continued to drag.

• Euro and Pound to be driven by the EU summit where the risks will be over the UK and EU's endeavors to come to a trade agreement.
• The Dollar index dipped below the 94.50 mark and is trading lower.

• The Indian unit is seen opening at 68.11 a dollar. USDINR expected to play the 67.90-68.30 range today.

Monday, 25 June 2018

• Asian equities trade mostly lower in the morning today amid lingering trade concerns. The PBoC announcement that it would cut the required reserved ratio (RRR) by 0.5% caught some attention.
• U.S. oil prices maintained hefty gains made after major oil producers had agreed on a modest increase in production.
• A Reuters poll says, the chances that the ECB will extend its asset purchases by into the next year remain low while a majority analysts expect a downgrade in the Eurozone economic growth for this year.
• The EU summit this week could prove to be a market mover as a weak final message from the EU leaders would add fuel to the weak sentiment in the EZ post Italian worries.
• The Dollar index moves up above 94.50 and seems to sustain, moving further up.
• The Indian Rupee is opened weaker at 67.99 with expectations on USDINR to trade strong targeting 68.30 today.

Thursday, 21 June 2018

• The Nasdaq touched a record yesterday, lifted by a surge in large-cap tech and consumer companies, while the Dow and S&P 500 had a restricted movement as concerns over an escalation in the U.S.-China trade spat simmered.
• Euro zone finance ministers will decide today how much cash and debt relief to give Greece in return for compliance with economic reforms, to ensure Athens can finance itself after it exits its bailout in August.
• Oil prices fell today as Iran signaled it could be won over to a small rise in OPEC crude output, potentially paving the way for the producer cartel to agree a supply increase during a meeting on Friday.
• The dollar index hovered near an 11-month high today, supported by a rise in U.S. yields, while the pound struggled at its lowest level since November 2017 ahead of BoE's monetary policy decision.
• The Indian Rupee is seen opening around 68.15 a dollar and is expected to trade weaker between 68.00-68.40 for the day.

Wednesday, 20 June 2018

Good Morning,

U.S President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 10 percent tariff on another USD 200 billion of Chinese goods, and Beijing warned it would retaliate. US stocks fell on Tuesday as a sharp escalation in the trade dispute between the United States and China rattled markets and put the Dow Jones Industrial Average back in negative territory for the year. Trump said his move followed China's decision to raise tariffs on $50 billion in US goods, which came after the White House announced similar tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday. Stocks in Asia rebounded from recent losses on Wednesday as investors sought bargains, a day after the spectre of a US-China trade war drove down bond yields, and share and commodity prices. Brent crude fell 0.3 percent to $75.11 a barrel after rallying 2.5 percent overnight. Indian Rupee is likely to open at 68.20a dollar and is expected to trade between 68.00-68.50 range for the day.

Karvy Forex

Wednesday, 13 June 2018

      Good morning!

      As projected by RBI previous week India’s CPI went up by 4.87% (YoY) in May from 4.58% in April. Elsewhere prices in US also grew up by 2.2% (YoY) in May from 2.1% above the central bank target of 2%. The dollar index edged higher on the back of strong CPI numbers. Asian equities were seen trading in different directions where Nikkei & Taiwan towards the north and Straits & Hang Seng towards the south. “Hope a new bright future” are the words from President Trump after wrapping up his five-hour denuclearization meeting with Kim. Investors are waiting for FOMC statement today late evening with a 25 BPS hike globally expected. Indian Rupee is likely to open near 67.60 and is likely to trade between 67.40 - 67.80 a dollar range for the day.

Tuesday, 12 June 2018

Good Morning!

The Dollar index edged higher as investors expecting a positive outcome from Trump - Kim meeting as Trump told Kim "we will have a terrific relationship" amid handshakes.

IMF chief Christine Lagarde warns that "clouds over the global economy are getting darker by the day" pointing out Donald Trump’s America First trade policy.
Oil prices were little changed after Iraq’s Oil Minister said producers should not over exaggerate and "prices still require support and stability".
U.S 10 year Treasury yields missed to bounce above 3% once again.

Indian Rupee is expected to open near 67.45 a dollar and is expected to trade between 67.25 – 67.65 a dollar for the day.

Monday, 11 June 2018

Good Morning!

Asian equities shook off initial modest losses and edged up today ahead of a U.S.-North Korea summit that might ease regional tensions, while investors also start on to watch key central bank meetings later this week.
With the U.S. Federal Reserve almost unanimously expected to raise interest rates for the second time this year, market focus is on the Fed's projection on the future path of interest rates.
The Dollar index trades close to 93.50.
The Indian Rupee is seen as an opening at 67.48 a dollar and is expected to play the 67.35-67.85 range for the day.

Karvy Forex

Thursday, 7 June 2018

Good Morning!

RBI gives a rate hike of 25bps from 6% to 6.25% while it maintains the policy stand Neutral.
Trade war fears take a back seat. Wall Street Indices rallied yesterday supported by financial stocks as investors eyed strong economic data. Nasdaq gives a third consecutive close at record highs.
Asian equities rise to 2 1/2 –month high today supported by strong economic fundamentals.
Euro rises on expectations that the ECB could start rolling back its stimulus program by year-end, putting the Dollar under pressure. DXY continues to move down.
The Indian Rupee is seen opening at 66.92 a dollar and expected to cautiously play the 66.80-67.10 range for the day.

Karvy Forex

Friday, 1 June 2018

Good Morning!

Indian retains its spot as world’s fastest growing major economy after growing 7.7% in the January – March quarter highest in last seven quarters.
Bank of Japan decides to cut down its 5 – 10 year bond purchases from 450 Bln Yen to 430 Bln Yen.
U.S President Donald Trump decided to impose tariffs on imports aluminum and steel from Canada and Mexico.
Euro is set for a positive close for the first time in six weeks after Italy’s president has given Prime minister designate Conte an approval to form government.
Asian equities were seen trading higher this morning.
Indian rupee is expected to open near 67.44 a dollar and USDINR is likely to trade between 67.65 – 67.25 with slight dips initially followed by pullbacks.

Karvy Forex

Volume and Open Interest suggesting an accumulation in USDINR

USDINR futures prices were seen consolidating while  volumes  and OI were seen increasing suggesting accumulation.