Volume and Open Interest suggesting an accumulation in USDINR

USDINR futures prices were seen consolidating while  volumes  and OI were seen increasing suggesting accumulation.

Appreciating AUD heading towards 1.3774 against US Dollar

USDAUD has turned lower sharply after correcting 61.8% Fib. Retracement level to the rally started from 11th of  Jan’19 suggesting that overall weakness is still intact.

oThe upper band of the Bollinger band is seen moving lower in line with the lower band suggesting negative momentum is in place.

oAt momentum front both RSI (14Pd ) and Stochastic (14/3/3) are seen turning lower after testing equilibrium region supporting the negative bias.

oGoing ahead USDAUD is likely to hold below 1.1413 and trade lower towards 1.3774.

Is Advance/Decline Ratio suggesting sharp fall ahead in NIFTY??

 As seen in the chart Nifty-50 is seen moving higher since the last week but advance decline ratio is seen moving the other way suggesting a correction in nifty in coming days.

CME Gold Futures Vs Dollar Index.

CME GOLD Futures Vs US Dollar index as seen in the chart are usually inversely related to each other. But both were seen moving in tandem  with each other suggesting safe heaven buying on the wake of global slowdown concerns.

WTI Crude oil likely to find resistance at $ 55.00

WTI Crude oil prices are seen trading 

higher since 26th Dec’18 after finding support at USD 42.36.

Prices are currently at the upper band of the Bollinger and previous falls consolidation range.

Also momentum indicator Stochastic (14/3/3) is seen in overbought region suggesting a correction in coming days.

Going ahead prices at resistance and momentum in overbought region prices are likely to find resistance at 54.50-55.00 and turn lower again towards 50.

USDINR has resistance at 71.50 prices

USDINR spot prices is at middle band of the Bollinger after trading higher in the last two weeks. USDINR has resistance at 71.50 prices are likely to hold below it and trade lower towards 70.70 in the coming 1-2 sessions.

Price, Open interest & Volume analysis on USDINR

USDINR Jan futures prices, volume and OI were slightly down in the last three days after  four days of rally suggesting that profit booking is in place.

Asian equities are trading cautiously but on a positive front as investors tried to digest China

• Asian equities are trading cautiously but on a positive front as investors tried to digest China quarterly GDP numbers, although the GDP growth was in line with the Reuters poll of 6.4%(YoY), but the levels were similar to the growth seen during global financial crisis in early 2009 despite constant easing by fiscal and monetary authorities.

• US Treasury yields stretched its gains as the investors risk appetite returned with the hopes for a thaw in US-China trade tensions. But a prolonged US Government partial shutdown is keeping a lid on gains in Dollar Index.

• Britain Prime Minister Theresa May will present the Brexit plan-B today at 8.00PM IST after her Plan-A beaten down by a historic margin.

• PBOC fixed the Yuan reference rate at 6.7774 per dollar Vs 6.7665.

• Indian Rupee opened at 71.36 a dollar and is expected to trade between 71.10 – 71.50 range for the day.

• US markets will remain closed today on account of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

Good Morning!

After the US-China 90 day truce, the US equity indices yesterday rallied but again this ceasefire gives a way to doubts on whether the two countries are able to resolve their differences before the 90-day deadline; resulting into a fall in Asian shares early today.
The data release highlighting weakness in the Eurozone economy was the 3Q GDP reading for Italy that came in below expectations. This contraction marks the first quarterly contraction in 14 quarters.
Oil prices rose on Tuesday, extending strong gains from the previous day amid expected OPEC-led supply cuts and a mandated reduction in Canadian output.
The Dollar index is steady but is somehow not able to sustain and move above the 97 handle.
The Indian Unit is seen opening around 70.50 and is likely to hold itself above the 70 mark today.

Regards
Karvy Forex
www.karvyforex.com

Good Morning!

Global Markets trading cautiously as Trump is set to meet Chinese President Xi on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Argentina, but he denied to meet Putin due to tensions over Russia forces opening fire on Ukrainian navy boats and seizing them. Dollar index trading steadily as FOMC meeting minutes suggest that although, Fed is likely to increase interest rates by 25 bps in December meeting, but further rate hike decisions will be data dependent. Oil prices are back again above $50.00 currently trading at $51.61 as OPEC and Russian to agree on production cuts next week, but swelling US inventories would keep the pressure on prices. Wall Street trading marginally lower weighed down by Tech and Bank stocks, Asian equities trading mixed ahead of the summit. Indian Rupee is likely to open near 69.65 a dollar and is expected to trade between 69.45 to 70.00 range for the day.
 
Regards,
Karvy Forex
www.karvyforex.com

Good Morning!

Trade-related headlines are likely to drive investor sentiment this week, as investors look ahead to a meeting between U.S. President Trump and China President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Argentina.
In Europe, Brexit headlines will be in focus after European Union leaders endorsed Theresa May's Brexit plans yesterday, setting up a showdown with lawmakers in her own country.
Global financial markets will also pay close attention to comments from a handful of Fed officials, including Chair Powell, for additional insight into the outlook for monetary policy in the months ahead.
On the data front, there is important third-quarter U.S. growth data this week, which should lend further support to the notion that the economy is on solid footing.
Asian shares edged higher today, though investors were cautious as plunging oil prices fanned worries about a dimming outlook for the global economy.
Oil prices steadied today after plunging nearly 8 percent in the previous session, but remain under pressure with Brent crude below $60 per barrel amid weak fundamentals and struggling financial markets.
The dollar index rose today, as investors sought shelter in safe haven currencies as fears of a global growth slowdown and U.S.-Sino trade tensions sapped risk appetite.
The Indian Unit, however, is seen opening strong against the Dollar at 70.40 today and is expected to play the 70.00-70.80 range for the day.

Regards
Karvy Forex

Good Morning!

Sell off in technology shares on Friday continued to weigh on the Wall Street. Global economic slowdown along with poor corporate earnings reports continue to build pressure on Asian shares today which showed a little signs of correction today morning.
Oil prices were stable today amidst global growth concerns while the Dollar Index held firm, not far off a 10-week peak hit after data showed U.S. economic growth slowed less than expected and as global risk sentiment remained fragile.
The Indian Unit is seen opening around 73.30 and is expected to play the 73.15-73.55 range for the day.

Regards
Karvy Forex

Good Morning!

It was a day for bargain hunters on the Wall Street yesterday, as the equity markets found ground after technology shares reported upbeat earnings. However today, Asian equities still struggled to recover from the continued downfall as concerns over world trade and economic growth still persist.
Oil prices eased today and were seen heading for a third weekly loss after Saudi Arabia's OPEC governor said the market could be heading into oversupply, as growth concerns took a hit with a slump in global equities this week.
The dollar traded in tight ranges against most of its peers today as investors stayed away from riskier assets, while the euro stayed near two-month lows after the ECB failed to convince markets that rates would rise.
The Indian Unit is seen opening gap down against the dollar at 73.44 and is expected to play the 73.20-73.70 range for the day.

Regards
Karvy Forex

Good Morning!

The S&P 500 along with Nasdaq edged lower last Friday in the U.S. due to ongoing concerns about rising interest rates and tensions over trade policy hitting economic growth.
Asian equities fell anew today as investors braced for the peak of the US earnings season while anxiety over Saudi Arabia, Italy and Brexit kept geopolitics front and center.
Oil prices edged up today, as markets are expected to tighten once U.S. sanctions against Iran's crude exports are implemented next month.
The Euro and the British pound slipped against the dollar today as investors await developments around Brexit as well as Italy's budget plan which drew heavy criticism from the European Union last week. The Dollar Index haven’t had a major move yet but is hovering close to the critical 96 handle.
The Indian Unit too is seen opening almost flat against the Dollar and is expected to swing between 73.30-73.80 today.

Regards
Karvy Forex

Good Morning!

US President Trump said he is immediately sending the secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Saudi Arabia to meet with King Salman to discuss the disappearance of Saudi activist Jamal Khashoggi. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has issued a furious response to US saying it would immediately retaliate with the equal amount of sanctions if US tries to impose sanctions over the kingdom. The kingdom also warned that Oil prices could go as high as $200 if US attempts to threaten. Brent Crude was seen trading at $81 this morning. Pound recovered overnight as UK PM May said “we are entering the final stages of Brexit Negotiations”; vis-à-vis comments from European Council President Donald Tusk that a “No-Deal” Brexit is more likely than ever before. US Equities ended flat followed by a similar start in Asian Equities. Indian trade deficit narrowed to a five-month low at $13.98 billion in September, exports declined by a moderate of 2.15% but, a slowdown in imports restricted the deficit. Indian Rupee is likely to neat 73.75 and is expected to trade between 73.50 - 74.20 for the day. 

Regards,
Karvy Forex
www.karvyforex.com

Good Morning!

Wall Street ended slightly lower yesterday as investors, worried about global growth prospects, fled from materials and industrials stocks. The decline was limited and the U.S. indices borrowed support from the falling treasury yields that have put the Dollar under pressure. The Dollar slipped further from seven-week highs today while sterling saw a little relief on hopes Britain and the European Union might be close to a Brexit deal.
Asian equities steadied in early trade today after global stocks hit eight-week lows the yesterday on worries about global economic growth.
The Oil prices edged lower today after the IMF’s lower global growth forecasts but prices found support as Hurricane Michael churned toward Florida, causing the shutdown of nearly 40 percent of U.S. Gulf of Mexico crude output.
The Indian unit is seen opening a little strong around 74.15 a dollar but is expected to remain volatile for the day playing the 73.85-74.45 range for the day.

Regards
Karvy Forex

Good morning!

Asian markets trades lower early Monday as China’s markets prepare to reopen following a week-long holiday after its central bank cut banks’ reserve requirements in a bid to support growth, while Oil prices corrected from highs as US considers some waivers on Iran crude sanctions. US equities ended lower on Fridays on back mixed US data. Meanwhile, US 10 year yields rose to 3. 23% hits a fresh 7 year highs.  

Dollar index traded higher, moves are limited by a lack of liquidity with Japan on holiday and the U.S. bond market on a break while pound inched higher

Dollar rupee likely to open near 74.05 after last day volatile move and expected to trade in a broader range of 73.65-74.25 for the day

Regards

Karvy Forex 

The Wall Street stocks lost their foot yesterday as U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise to multi-year highs as an outcome of the recent strong economic data,
building concerns for an acceleration of inflation.
Asian equities were shaky and further look perilous as the risk of faster-than-expected interest rate hikes in the U.S. persists.
Oil prices rose today, as we move closer to the U.S. sanctions against Iran's crude exports that are set to start next month.
The Indian Central bank is due to come out with its interest rate decision, where it is expected to raise the rates by 25 bps.
The Dollar continued to hold gains today against its major peers, including the yen and euro, as investors evaluated the impact of a two-day global government
bond retreat that has lifted U.S. Treasury yields.
The Indian Unit is seen opening around 73.70 a dollar and is expected to play the 73.30-74.40 range today with a bearish bias.

Good Morning!

At least 800 people are confirmed to have died in Indonesia and the death toll is expected to rise sharply after the magnitude of 7.5 earthquake hit the country on Friday.
Brent Crude oil prices are trading at a four year high boosted by the looming sanctions against Iran.
Foreign Portfolio Investors have withdrawn more than over INR 21,000 Cr during the month of September from local Equity and Debt markets, the highest in last four months.
China is expected to cut import tariffs on textile and metals to promote the balanced development of foreign trade and promote a high level of opening up to the outside world.
shares of Tesla lost around 14% after US regulators sued CEO Elon Musk in a fraud complaint that seeks to remove him as CEO. US Equities ended flat on Friday pulled by news of Tesla and Facebook.
Asian Equities were seen trading mixed this morning and SGX Nifty is also indicating a flat start to the local bourses. Indian Rupee is likely to open near 72.70 a dollar and is expected to trade between 72.45 – 72.95 range for the day

Good Morning!

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman says the U.S. does not face a large chance of near-term recession. The news of robust economic growth boosted gains on Wall Street. The wave passed on to the Asian equities today pushing the shares higher.
Oil prices inched up on Friday, with investors trying to gauge the potential impact on supply from looming U.S. sanctions on Iran's crude exports.
The Euro witnessed an around 0.9% fall yesterday largely due to increased Italian political jitters as the anti-establishment parties agreed on a budget proposal that is at odds with Eurozone fiscal rules. The situations seems to worsen for Euro as The Fed has just raised rates to a range of 2.00 – 2.25 percent while the ECB is only just preparing to exit its asset purchase program potentially by the end of this year.
The Dollar Index as a result of this and with strong economic data in U.S. managed to test the 95 mark yesterday.
The Indian Unit, yet again found support at 73 a dollar offshore and recovered a little where it is seen opening today near 72.60. However, it continues to be under pressure even after the governments measures to curb imports. All thanks to the dollar strength globally. Expect the Rupee to play the 72.40-72.90 range with a negative bias.

Regards
Karvy Forex